Morning Briefing: FM Radio - February 15, 2025

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The financial landscape has shown intriguing dynamics recently, with multiple market indices exhibiting notable shiftsOn a landmark trading day last Friday, the S&P 500 benchmark closed nearly unchanged, maintaining its position at elevated levels, while the Nasdaq marked its second consecutive day of gainsThis uptick across major U.S. indices contributed to a broader rebound noticed throughout the week.

Highlighting the week’s developments, Nvidia emerged as a significant contributor to market enthusiasm, witnessing a notable rise of 2.6%. Conversely, SoundHound AI, a company from which Nvidia divested its holdings, faced a substantial drop of 28%. Furthermore, shares of Arm, also reduced by Nvidia, plummeted more than 3%. This week saw Intel achieving a monumental surge of nearly 24%, marking its largest quarterly increase since 2000. On the hospitality front, Airbnb witnessed an encouraging rise exceeding 14%, propelled by promising forecasts for the future.

The Chinese market index observed a gratifying increase of over 2%, with gains accumulating to over 7% throughout the weekNotably, Alibaba’s stock soared more than 4% on the day, aggregating a staggering weekly increase of 20%. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s 'new darling,' Waabi, enjoyed an astonishing rally, with stock prices skyrocketing by over 80% amid the tech stock excitementFurthermore, European stocks, despite witnessing a modest decline from historically high levels, managed to secure an impressive eighth consecutive week of gains, achieving the longest streak seen in nearly a year.

Shifting focus to economic indicators, recent American retail data, which suggest an unanticipated 0.9% decrease in January retail sales, were positively interpreted as conducive to potential interest rate cutsAs a result, U.S. treasury yields experienced a sharp decline, hitting weekly lowsCorrespondingly, the dollar index weakened significantly, dropping to a two-month lowDuring this period, the offshore RMB made a notable advance of 400 points, inching closer to 7.25, thus reflecting its highest values in three weeks.

Gold, despite a brief retreat of nearly 2%, has managed to extend its winning streak to seven weeks

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Meanwhile, crude oil prices witnessed fluctuations, initially rising over 1% before facing a decline, enduring a consecutive three-week drop to a weekly low as crude oil prices fell for the fourth successive week.

In the Asian trading session, A-shares showcased a powerful rebound, with the ChiNext index gaining nearly 2% and the Hang Seng Index surging over 5%. This rally was marked by wider gains among Chinese tech giants, albeit accompanied by a decline in government bond futures.

Recent headlines indicate various market movements and strategic shiftsExtreme weather and wildfires have negatively impacted retail performance in the United States, reflecting a surprising 0.9% decline in January retail salesFurther analysis shows that this figure surpasses expectations significantly, raising concerns about consumer spending amid persistent inflationary pressures and rising borrowing costsThe trend of households increasingly relying on credit for purchases amplifies worries about rising debt delinquency.

Berkshire Hathaway reported a strategic shift in its portfolio during the fourth quarter: it maintained its Apple holdings while boosting its stake in Occidental Petroleum and reducing bank stock holdings, increasing investments in the restaurant sectorNotably, Buffett's firm slashed over 70% of its Citigroup holdings and reduced its stake in Bank of America by nearly 15%. Earlier this week, Berkshire disclosed additional investments in Occidental Petroleum, amounting to $35.7 million, acquiring more than 760,000 sharesIn terms of mega-buys, Constellation Brands, a large alcohol producer, was a significant addition during the quarter, where Berkshire initiated a new position of 5.62 million shares.

Additionally, Nvidia revealed its quarterly holdings, leading to a doubling in share values of Waabi, while previously favored “Nvidia concept stocks” like Serve Robotics and SoundHound AI plummeted sharply following liquidationRegulatory filings published on Friday indicated Nvidia owned a total of 1.74 million shares in Waabi as of the end of the fourth quarter, amounting to a market value exceeding $24.67 million

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The announcement ignited excitement, with Waabi's ADR skyrocketing, surging over 146% at one point, but later triggered trading halts due to volatility before closing at lower values.

Analyst insights from Morgan Stanley suggested that ASIC has overheated in the markets, proclaiming Nvidia’s market position as unshakeableThey articulated that while ASIC performs well in certain applications, it heavily relies on specific customer customization, leading to relatively higher overall costs when coupled with system expenditures and software deployment, contrasting directly with GPUs designed for mass applicationsCognizant of Nvidia’s established CUDA ecosystem in global cloud services, analysts projected its strong market standing to remain intact.

As the tech realm progresses, Meta is focusing on artificial intelligence, intending to establish a team focusing on AI-driven robotic development within its Reality Labs hardware divisionThis ambitious initiative, aimed at creating household assistant robots, expects to recruit approximately 100 engineers in the upcoming year, underlining the company’s commitment to leading advancements in the robotics sector akin to Google’s Android in mobile technology.

Elon Musk’s xAI now seeks $10 billion in funding, valuing the company at $75 billion and making headlines amid the buzzReports emerged suggesting that Dell is on the cusp of finalizing a considerable deal with xAI, involving the delivery of servers equipped with Nvidia’s GB200 chips, planned at around $5 billion.

Moreover, Goldman Sachs traders are eyeing 2025, outlining predictions of an ongoing AI craze along with market divergence and troubling inflationary pressuresThey believe that continued high interest rates could hamper market growth, particularly affecting small-cap stocks but benefiting AI applicationsNotably, Goldman projected significant growth in Asian AI application revenues, anticipating a 20% increase, primarily hinting at China as a pivotal player in this burgeoning sector.

On the global stage, metrics from the Eurozone revealed an unexpected 0.1% growth in the economy during the fourth quarter of 2024 despite setbacks in major economies like Germany and France

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